Future Scenarios: How Communities Can Adapt to Peak Oil and Climate Change

admin — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 16:58:00 +0000

David Holmgren, one of the founders of the permaculture concept, turns his attention to forecasting the results of changes to energy and climate in Future Scenarios: How Communities Can Adapt to Peak Oil and Climate Change. The first half of the book provides an overview of the history of energy, energy futures, and the relationships between climate change and peak oil. It’s likely not surprising that this information is somewhat bleak. While nothing in these sections of the book was completely surprising to me, it was still somewhat bracing to have all of this information presented all at once in such a precise, matter-of-fact way.

After providing historical context, Holmgren moves into the heart of the book: descent scenarios. Holmgren forecasts four scenarios based on different variables of climate change and energy decline (slow energy decline and severe climate change, slow energy decline and moderate climate change, etc.). The scenarios range from dystopian to moderately utopian. I have struggled a lot with my reactions to these scenarios. I cannot argue with the research behind Holmgren’s assertions and his presentation is thorough and clear, but I have a mental disconnect in that I don’t want to believe any of the negative ones. The scenarios that are the most cautiously utopian are comforting, but seem unrealistic (and still hugely life altering).

To his credit, Holmgren is aware of the potential for this reaction. In the final section of the book—by far my favorite section—Holmgren notes, “I believe we can better shape our responses to each of the scenarios if as individuals and communities and nations we recognize the constraining forces that are beyond our control. We can then consider how basic human values and needs can be sustained without wasting resources on projects or objectives that may have little chance of altering the fundamental dynamics of our world.”

This sentiment is what I was hoping for when I started reading Future Scenarios. I had hoped that the book would provide suggestions for ways that communities could work together to adapt to the challenges that we are on the precipice of experiencing. The book mainly focuses, instead, on forecasts. While it is really only the aforementioned final section that delves into what I was hoping for, the book does provide valuable, if sometimes terrifying, information about the possible interactions and ramifications of climate change and peak oil.

Written by: Erin Schowalter, June 25th 2009

The Design of Climate Policy

admin — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 11:58:00 +0000

Edited by Roger Guesnerie, Henry Tulkens

MIT Press

The Design of Climate Policy is an aberration of sorts; it is definitely not of the fare I usually review. The book is one in a series that explores policy issues in economics largely from European researchers and scholars. This text provides some fascinating insight, considering that the European Union is notable for its effort to stem climate change. The European Union fell considerably short of its goal, however, by setting emission targets too high, and not taking into account the lack of systematic enforcement in climate policies.

For environmentalists, this book is a must read, especially if you consider the "cap and trade" system of the Kyoto Protocol inadequate. A caveat: no ordinary dilettante will have the stomach to read this without a background in calculus and some familiarity with the international agreements on climate change and carbon emissions.

My favorite piece was the succinct article from Resources for the Future's William Pizer entitled "Economics versus Climate Change." Pizer believes that a coordinated international agreement is not necessary, and may even be initially counterproductive to effective action on climate change. He also places developing countries in the context of this debate. Pizer says, "[There is] a view that emission caps, however generous at the outset, could eventually be used to limit development and growth, and that climate change is simply not a priority when viewed alongside poverty, hunger, and education. I worry that the strength of this view among developing countries may be underestimated among economists theorizing about global trading."

I cannot help but agree. This is a point that needs to be considered when developing climate policy. I have to admit, though, that this book is for economists and by economists. It is regretful how often the sort of useful information contained in this book becomes diluted in the hands of policy advisors.

Written by: Anita Sonawane, March 6th 2009